New Jersey will send one less representative to Congress in 2012 if population trends around the country continue through the end of the decade, a new study shows.
New Jersey came up just 15,187 people short of the population needed to keep its 13th seat in the House of Representatives and its delegation would shrink to 12, based on Census Bureau population estimates for 2008 analyzed last week by a Virginia consulting firm.
The analysis found New Jersey and Michigan joining six other states, including New York and Pennsylvania, that would lose House seats because population growth has lagged behind states in the South and West.
The U.S. Constitution requires that the 435 seats in the House be reapportioned among the 50 states every 10 years based on the census. That will not happen until the 2010 census is released in 2011, but the Census Bureau also does annual estimates, and those numbers show New Jersey losing a seat.
New Jersey’s delegation last shrank in 1992, when it went from 14 seats to 13.
Within the state, population growth is mirroring the national trend, with western, central and southern counties growing faster than North Jersey, where some counties have seen a population decline.
That could mean North Jersey would lose a representative, and two incumbents would have to battle each other in the same district.
“If the final numbers show a population shift out of Bergen toward Ocean or Atlantic County, for example, the people responsible for drawing the new map would have to compensate for that,” said Ross Baker, a political scientist and expert on Congress at Rutgers University.
Estimates through 2007 show Morris County grew by 4 percent and Bergen and Passaic counties by 1 percent over the decade. Essex and Hudson counties each saw 2 percent drops, while the biggest growth was in Gloucester County, 12 percent; Ocean County, 11 percent; Somerset County, 9 percent; and Atlantic County, 7 percent.
But politics and Supreme Court precedents designed to protect minority voting rights will play as big a role as demographics in the final district map. A contraction of the state delegation could set up a battle between two incumbents, but Baker said it’s also possible one member of the delegation will choose to retire.
Already, Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill and Trenton are discussing various scenarios. Not surprisingly, Democrats would like to see two Republicans face off in a primary.
Among the scenarios mentioned by one senior House Democratic aide was a northwestern district where two Republicans, such as Rep. Scott Garrett of Wantage and Leonard Lance of Clinton Township, would face off. Another scenario would pit Garrett or Lance against Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-Harding.
Republicans, not surprisingly, see things differently.
With population growing along the Shore and in the northwestern part of the state and contracting in Hudson, Essex and parts of Bergen and Union counties, Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson said the seat loss should come in Democratic terrain.
He said the new map could take parts of Bergen County in Garrett’s district and add them to the district of Rep. Steve Rothman, D-Fair Lawn. Or there could be a Rothman-Garrett battle for a seat, or a battle between Rothman and Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr., D-Paterson.
It is still possible New Jersey could keep all 13 seats if the official 2010 census comes up with different state-by-state counts than the annual estimates.
The study of 2008 population by Election Data Services of Manassas, Va., ranked New Jersey 436th in apportioning the 435 House seats, meaning it was the last state to lose a seat.
“There’s always the potential it could change when you’re sitting on one of the last five seats,” said Kimball W. Brace, president of Election Data Services, which performs the study annually.
The same study last year showed New Jersey retaining its 13th seat while Missouri lost one. This year’s study showed Missouri holding that seat with 12,899 people to spare.
“There’s enough flux in the numbers and enough room for what a state does to make that projection change. If I was the governor, I’d be very conscious of the potential for spending money to make sure the census is done right,” Brace said.
Brace noted that states can provide the Census Bureau with an accurate address list, so surveyors do not miss apartments in basements or the back of homes. California also regularly mounts a campaign to promote and explain the census to immigrants who might be suspicious of government surveys.
But the national data show the Northeast generally lagging behind the rest of the country, with population in the region growing by just 2.5 percent, compared with 11.5 percent in the South and 12.1 percent in the West.
That could mean the seat loss could come in Essex or Hudson, which are represented by Democrats Donald Payne of Newark and Albio Sires of West New York. But Payne’s district is predominantly African-American and Sires’ is mostly Latino, and court rulings on redistricting and voting rights make changes to so-called minority-majority districts difficult.
The New Jersey Constitution calls for a 13-member commission, made of six Democrats, six Republicans and a non-partisan chairman, to redraw congressional lines. The chairman must be selected by the partisan members or, if they cannot agree on someone, by the state Supreme Court.
Baker said the non-partisan member may play the role of a tiebreaker, and there’s no telling what factors that person will deem most important.
“They could decide to protect seniority, or go against seniority,” Baker said.
Sworn in: Garden State in Congress
Rebuilding the economy topped the agenda for Democrats and Republicans sworn in to represent New Jersey in the 111th Congress on Tuesday. The state saw its senior senator start a historic fifth term, plus two new House members — Democrat John Adler of Cherry Hill and Republican Leonard Lance of Clinton Township. Democrats said excitement about uncorking bottled-up initiatives with a president from their own party was tempered by the serious economic challenge ahead. Republicans warned about heaping big debts on future generations with new government programs in the name of stimulus. Here’s a look at some members who were sworn in Tuesday and what they had to say:
Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-Cliffside Park
Background: First elected in 1982, Lautenberg, 84, began his fifth term in the Senate, something no one from New Jersey has ever done.
How today was different from 1983: “The first time everything was a surprise, and now everything is anticipation. It’s looking forward, because I’ve been working on things for such a long time.”
No. 1 issue: “We have to make sure that when the time for appropriations comes about … we have to get the funds for the [trans-Hudson rail] tunnel, for Amtrak, funds that relate to the … programs I got started.”
Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr., D-Paterson
Background: Beginning seventh term; serves on the House Ways and Means Committee.
No. 1 issue: “Respond to the economic depression in the United States of America to help our citizens, and not help them for a short period of time and then drive them deeper into the abyss.” First bill introduced: To make Paterson’s Great Falls a national park. House passed the bill last term, but it stalled in the Senate.
Rep. Scott Garrett, R-Wantage
Background: Beginning fourth term; serves on financial services and budget committees.
No. 1 issue: “Getting the economy going again, and the job situation as well. … There’s a number of challenges out there, obviously, on the economic front. That the credit markets are tight, the banks are not lending, unemployment numbers are rising and the housing market is dropping.”
Rep. Steve Rothman, D-Fair Lawn
Background: Beginning seventh term; serves on appropriations committee.
No. 1 issue: “To make sure Congress passes the right economic stimulus package to get our economy moving and create new jobs for our people.” Local priority: “Continue to bring home more money than any member of Congress who has ever represented our district.”
Rep. Leonard Lance, R-Clinton
Background: Former state Senate minority leader in Trenton; won seat formerly held by Rep. Michael Ferguson, R-Westfield, who chose not to seek reelection
No. 1 issue: “I want to review the second stimulus package and do not know if I’ll be voting for or against it. … It has to have taxpayer protection. I hope one of the components is a tax cut for middle-class Americans and small businesses.”
Rep. John Adler, D-Cherry Hill
Background: Ex-chairman of state Senate Judiciary Committee, won seat formerly held by Rep. H. James Saxton, R-Mount Holly, increasing New Jersey Democrats’ House edge to an 8-5 margin.
About being sworn in: “I have been so eager to get started and do the job the people of my district have elected me to do.”
— Herb Jackson
For more details, see northjersey.com/herbjackson.
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County-by-county population change
State-by-state population change
For more details, see northjersey.com/herbjackson
New Jersey will send one less representative to Congress in 2012 if population trends around the country continue through the end of the decade, a new study shows.
New Jersey came up just 15,187 people short of the population needed to keep its 13th seat in the House of Representatives and its delegation would shrink to 12, based on Census Bureau population estimates for 2008 analyzed last week by a Virginia consulting firm.
The analysis found New Jersey and Michigan joining six other states, including New York and Pennsylvania, that would lose House seats because population growth has lagged behind states in the South and West.
The U.S. Constitution requires that the 435 seats in the House be reapportioned among the 50 states every 10 years based on the census. That will not happen until the 2010 census is released in 2011, but the Census Bureau also does annual estimates, and those numbers show New Jersey losing a seat.
New Jersey’s delegation last shrank in 1992, when it went from 14 seats to 13.
Within the state, population growth is mirroring the national trend, with western, central and southern counties growing faster than North Jersey, where some counties have seen a population decline.
That could mean North Jersey would lose a representative, and two incumbents would have to battle each other in the same district.
“If the final numbers show a population shift out of Bergen toward Ocean or Atlantic County, for example, the people responsible for drawing the new map would have to compensate for that,” said Ross Baker, a political scientist and expert on Congress at Rutgers University.
Estimates through 2007 show Morris County grew by 4 percent and Bergen and Passaic counties by 1 percent over the decade. Essex and Hudson counties each saw 2 percent drops, while the biggest growth was in Gloucester County, 12 percent; Ocean County, 11 percent; Somerset County, 9 percent; and Atlantic County, 7 percent.
But politics and Supreme Court precedents designed to protect minority voting rights will play as big a role as demographics in the final district map. A contraction of the state delegation could set up a battle between two incumbents, but Baker said it’s also possible one member of the delegation will choose to retire.
Already, Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill and Trenton are discussing various scenarios. Not surprisingly, Democrats would like to see two Republicans face off in a primary.
Among the scenarios mentioned by one senior House Democratic aide was a northwestern district where two Republicans, such as Rep. Scott Garrett of Wantage and Leonard Lance of Clinton Township, would face off. Another scenario would pit Garrett or Lance against Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-Harding.
Republicans, not surprisingly, see things differently.
With population growing along the Shore and in the northwestern part of the state and contracting in Hudson, Essex and parts of Bergen and Union counties, Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson said the seat loss should come in Democratic terrain.
He said the new map could take parts of Bergen County in Garrett’s district and add them to the district of Rep. Steve Rothman, D-Fair Lawn. Or there could be a Rothman-Garrett battle for a seat, or a battle between Rothman and Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr., D-Paterson.
It is still possible New Jersey could keep all 13 seats if the official 2010 census comes up with different state-by-state counts than the annual estimates.
The study of 2008 population by Election Data Services of Manassas, Va., ranked New Jersey 436th in apportioning the 435 House seats, meaning it was the last state to lose a seat.
“There’s always the potential it could change when you’re sitting on one of the last five seats,” said Kimball W. Brace, president of Election Data Services, which performs the study annually.
The same study last year showed New Jersey retaining its 13th seat while Missouri lost one. This year’s study showed Missouri holding that seat with 12,899 people to spare.
